Buyers’ window: why spring could be Canberra’s best opportunity in years

Canberra’s spring selling season is shaping up as a real opportunity for buyers, offering more negotiating power than they’ve had in years – if they have the confidence to use it.

Windrose Property Principal and Sales Agent Sam McGregor said spring heralded genuine prospects for ACT buyers, amid the market’s continued softening of prices and speculation of a slowdown in new listing numbers for the traditional peak selling season.

But there is still a level of cautiousness and fence-sitting by buyers mulling over higher interest rates, tighter borrowing capacity and cost-of-living pressures.

“There’s no doubt that the market has been cooler across winter, and that government policy has had a huge impact on confidence,” Sam said.

“But anyone who looks to buy over the next month or two will be very happy six months from now that they did. By mid-next year I think we’ll be very far out of this downturn and things will be a lot more stable. In the long-term there’s still a lot of potential for growth.”

The latest Cotality Home Value Index, released on Tuesday, shows Canberra property values took another hit in August, dipping by 1.1% across all dwelling types.

The latest drop takes the annual change into negative territory at -0.4%. The median dwelling value is now $864,998, with houses holding onto the million-dollar bracket at $1,007,652.

The report shows home values fell across 93% of capital city suburbs and every capital except Darwin during the three months of winter.

It comes as Cotality last week predicted this year’s spring selling season could be cooler than usual, with new listings across Australia 8.2% below the five-year average and 2.0% below last year.

“From my perspective, we’re always going to see a slower period in August because people are holding back waiting for spring,” Sam said. “It’s a confidence issue, it’s not a market fundamentals issue.

“We’ve had a crazy year with wars, inflation, government policy changes and interest rate rises so why would you pull the trigger on buying a house through July and August when you want to see what options there coming into spring?

“Buyers should see this as an opportunity because anyone who is wanting to put their house on the market between now and the end of the year in current conditions is basically saying ‘I’m here to sell and willing to meet the market’.

“People aren’t expecting to set price records between now and the end of the year. They just want to sell a house and transact in real estate. Buyers should be seeing stock in spring as an opportunity to buy because it’s a window you’ll probably regret not buying in if you stick around for another 12 months.”

Sam said the evolution of life and plans to move by Christmas or in time for the new work or school year weighed heavily on Canberrans’ property decisions.

“Spring is a good time to look at selling, not only because it’s nice weather and people want to be out and about, but because logistically it makes a lot of sense to be tracking towards these life goals.

“There is external pressure on people looking to buy at that time of year that’s just not there in July and August. They want to be settled in a new home by the end of the year or early into the new year, ready for school and work.”

Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless said the latest data showed the downturn was no longer confined to select markets or higher-value segments.

“What started as a more concentrated easing across higher-value segments has now become a much more generalised softening, with the vast majority of capital city suburbs recording some level of decline,” Tim said.

Sydney sustained the largest drop in prices in August, with a 1.4% fall, while Melbourne and Canberra both saw declines of 1.1%, and Brisbane tipped by 1.0%.

“Higher advertised stock levels are simply a factor of a slower rate of absorption,” Tim said. “Longer selling times, larger vendor discounting and persistently low auction clearance rates all point to a buyer’s market, yet buyers are lacking the confidence to transact at the moment.”